European Forward Guidance

This summer has seen the explicit adoption of forward guidance as a additional, complementary, tool of European monetary policy – following the lead set some time ago in North America…Bank of England views on forward guidance (official website)
Carney’s subtle clarity suggests fresh QE is over, Financial Times, 7 Aug 2013
Less than promising, Financial Times, 7 Aug 2013
Interest rates to remain low until well after 2015 election, says Carney, Guardian, 7 Aug 2013
Bank of England: no interest rate rises till unemployment drops to 7% – as it happened, Guardian blog 7 Aug 2013

European Central Bank views on forward guidance (official website)
Forward guidance and the European Central Bank, column published by Peter Praet, Executive Director, ECB, 6 Aug 2013
We are all forward guiders now, Gavyn Davies, FT blog, 4 Jul 2013
ECB forward guidance: all very Delphic, Financial Times, 19 Aug 2013

The following article makes the point that the once “ugly duckling” of policy communications, the ECB, has arguably provided one of the most successful examples of forward guidance – the July 2012 Draghi announcement to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro…
A new toolkit, The Economist, 24 Aug 2013

For a useful update on the impact of recent US forward guidance (specifically the “tapering” debate) have a look at…
Shifting Expectations and Interest Rates, FRB Cleveland, Economic Trends, 15 Aug 2013

Ironically, a recent study argues that there is no evidence that forward guidance has increased the efficacy of monetary policy for New Zealand, the country with the longest history of forward guidance…
How Effective Is Central Bank Forward Guidance? FRB St Louis, WP2012‐063A, Dec 2012
Similarly, in the UK, BoE Governor Carney’s efforts appear less than successful (although there are all the usual qualifications about appropriate counterfactuals)…
Markets bet on UK rate rise two years early, Financial Times, 5 Sep 2013