Fantasy Prep 1

What Mr Probability is saying about the first six weeks….

X-goals=Expected goals (based on simple Poisson model using last season’s results and include estimates of attack and defence parameters for the three Premiership newcomers: Cardiff, Crystal Palace, Hull)
 
CSprob=Estimated probability of clean sheet for team shown
 

Fantasy Round 1 (note double header for Chelsea/Aston Villa)

Home team X-Goals CSprob Away team X-Goals CSprob
Liverpool 1.3 (62%) Stoke 0.5 (26%)
Arsenal 3.4 (28%) Aston Villa 1.3 (3%)
Norwich 1.0 (36%) Everton 1.0 (36%)
Sunderland 1.1 (38%) Fulham 1.0 (35%)
West Brom 2.0 (26%) Southampton 1.3 (13%)
West Ham 2.2 (42%) Cardiff City 0.9 (11%)
Swansea 1.2 (8%) Man United 2.5 (30%)
Crystal Palace 1.3 (10%) Tottenham 2.3 (27%)
Chelsea 2.6 (53%) Hull City 0.6 (7%)
Man City 2.7 (48%) Newcastle 0.7 (7%)
Chelsea 3.0 (41%) Aston Villa 0.9 (5%)

 

Fantasy Round 2

     
Home team X-Goals CSprob Away team X-Goals CSprob
Fulham 0.7 (17%) Arsenal 1.8 (50%)
Everton 1.9 (43%) West Brom 0.8 (15%)
Hull City 1.8 (37%) Norwich 1.0 (17%)
Newcastle 1.3 (45%) West Ham 0.8 (27%)
Southampton 1.6 (31%) Sunderland 1.2 (20%)
Stoke 1.3 (42%) Crystal Palace 0.9 (26%)
Aston Villa 1.1 (8%) Liverpool 2.5 (33%)
Cardiff City 0.9 (21%) Man City 1.6 (41%)
Tottenham 1.3 (45%) Swansea 0.8 (28%)
Man United 1.8 (22%) Chelsea 1.5 (16%)

 

Fantasy Round 3 (note only 9 matches, no Chelsea or Aston Villa)

     
Home team X-Goals CSprob Away team X-Goals CSprob
Man City 2.6 (55%) Hull City 0.6 (7%)
Cardiff City 1.1 (26%) Everton 1.4 (34%)
Newcastle 1.3 (20%) Fulham 1.6 (28%)
Norwich 1.6 (34%) Southampton 1.1 (20%)
West Brom 1.4 (33%) Swansea 1.1 (24%)
West Ham 1.4 (51%) Stoke 0.7 (25%)
Crystal Palace 1.6 (27%) Sunderland 1.3 (19%)
Liverpool 1.4 (22%) Man United 1.5 (25%)
Arsenal 2.3 (14%) Tottenham 2.0 (10%)

 

Fantasy Round 4

     
Home team X-Goals CSprob Away team X-Goals CSprob
Man United 2.9 (47%) Crystal Palace 0.8 (6%)
Aston Villa 1.5 (25%) Newcastle 1.4 (22%)
Fulham 1.6 (23%) West Brom 1.5 (20%)
Hull City 1.7 (35%) Cardiff City 1.1 (18%)
Stoke 0.7 (28%) Man City 1.3 (49%)
Sunderland 0.5 (33%) Arsenal 1.1 (61%)
Tottenham 2.0 (51%) Norwich 0.7 (14%)
Everton 1.3 (26%) Chelsea 1.3 (26%)
Southampton 1.4 (54%) West Ham 0.6 (24%)
Swansea 1.3 (10%) Liverpool 2.3 (26%)

 

Fantasy Round 5

     
Home team X-Goals CSprob Away team X-Goals CSprob
Norwich 1.8 (33%) Aston Villa 1.1 (16%)
Cardiff City 1.3 (10%) Tottenham 2.3 (27%)
Crystal Palace 1.2 (31%) Swansea 1.2 (31%)
Liverpool 2.1 (42%) Southampton 0.9 (12%)
Newcastle 1.5 (29%) Hull City 1.2 (22%)
West Brom 2.0 (29%) Sunderland 1.2 (14%)
West Ham 1.4 (32%) Everton 1.1 (25%)
Chelsea 2.2 (44%) Fulham 0.8 (11%)
Arsenal 1.9 (50%) Stoke 0.7 (15%)
Man City 1.7 (24%) Man United 1.4 (18%)

Fantasy Round 6

     
Home team X-Goals CSprob Away team X-Goals CSprob
Tottenham 1.2 (24%) Chelsea 1.4 (31%)
Aston Villa 0.8 (20%) Man City 1.6 (46%)
Fulham 1.8 (30%) Cardiff City 1.2 (17%)
Hull City 1.5 (50%) West Ham 0.7 (23%)
Man United 2.6 (39%) West Brom 0.9 (8%)
Southampton 1.7 (38%) Crystal Palace 1.0 (19%)
Swansea 0.7 (22%) Arsenal 1.5 (50%)
Stoke 1.4 (44%) Norwich 0.8 (24%)
Sunderland 1.0 (19%) Liverpool 1.7 (38%)
Everton 2.2 (43%) Newcastle 0.8 (12%)

 

GF=goals for, GF=goals conceded, GD =goal difference
all data rounded to nearest integer

Expected Goals (Weeks 1-6 cumulative)

Ranking by GF (High to Low) Ranking by GA (Low to High) Ranking by GD (High to Low)
Team GF GA GD Team GF GA GD Team GF GA GD
Man United 13 8 5 Man City 12 5 6 Man City 12 5 6
Chelsea 12 7 5 Arsenal 12 6 6 Arsenal 12 6 6
Arsenal 12 6 6 Liverpool 11 6 5 Chelsea 12 7 5
Man City 12 5 6 Everton 9 7 2 Man United 13 8 5
Liverpool 11 6 5 Chelsea 12 7 5 Liverpool 11 6 5
Tottenham 11 8 3 West Ham 7 7 0 Tottenham 11 8 3
Everton 9 7 2 Man United 13 8 5 Everton 9 7 2
West Brom 9 10 -1 Stoke 5 8 -2 West Ham 7 7 0
Southampton 8 8 -1 Tottenham 11 8 3 Southampton 8 8 -1
Fulham 7 9 -1 Norwich 7 8 -1 West Brom 9 10 -1
Hull City 7 10 -2 Southampton 8 8 -1 Norwich 7 8 -1
Aston Villa 7 14 -7 Fulham 7 9 -1 Fulham 7 9 -1
Newcastle 7 10 -3 Sunderland 6 9 -3 Hull City 7 10 -2
West Ham 7 7 0 Hull City 7 10 -2 Stoke 5 8 -2
Norwich 7 8 -1 West Brom 9 10 -1 Sunderland 6 9 -3
Crystal Palace 7 11 -4 Newcastle 7 10 -3 Newcastle 7 10 -3
Cardiff City 6 11 -4 Swansea 6 10 -4 Swansea 6 10 -4
Swansea 6 10 -4 Crystal Palace 7 11 -4 Crystal Palace 7 11 -4
Sunderland 6 9 -3 Cardiff City 6 11 -4 Cardiff City 6 11 -4
Stoke 5 8 -2 Aston Villa 7 14 -7 Aston Villa 7 14 -7