Note to self: always check those spreadsheets carefully, and always question whether statistical associations shed any light on causation… Continue reading Austerity & Growth Revisited
Mrs Thatcher’s economic legacy proved much weaker than her supporters claimed… Continue reading Mixed Bag Lady
Adding an ironic twist to the debate about Germany’s support for the debt-challenged PIGS…
Europe’s Poorest? Look North, Wall Street Journal, 10 Apr 2013
The Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey, ECB Statistics Paper, Apr 2013
Is the Untalented Mr Osborne giving one more puff to Britain’s housing bubble?
Fannie and Freddie no model for UK housing, Financial Times, 25 Mar 2013
Ploughing ahead, The Economist, 23 Mar 2013
Bubblicious: Osborne perpetuates the high house price cycle, IPPR, 20 Mar 2013
The OBR chief was right to correct the Prime Minister on his misleading interpretation of UK macro forecasts. That said, the impression has been left that “external” factors such as the global financial meltdown, high energy prices and the Eurozone crisis “explain” the bulk of the UK’s under-performance relative to forecast (which did recognise that, at the margin, fiscal austerity contributes to weaker short-term economic activity).
The problem is that we still need to address the more fundamental question as to why the UK should be so vulnerable to “external” shocks. Perhaps because the fiscal regime (in its broader sense that includes not just standard demand management but also structural reform, infrastructure, etc programmes) is failing to shoulder its counter-cyclical and supply-side responsibilities… Continue reading Responsible Fiscal Policy
Nice graphic from the New York Times suggesting that the pre-sequestration drop in the US government’s contribution to economic growth is the largest in more than 50 years…
Austerity Is Already Here, NY Times, 26 Feb 2013
An interesting application of convertible bonds for financing public services…
Commerce and conscience, The Economist, 23 Feb 2013
The IFS Green Budget suggests that the UK coalition’s public finances are in much worse shape than many realise…
Fiscal choices from IFS, BBC News, 6 Feb 2013
A key reason for the failure of the deficit-cutting strategy is not just that demand (and hence tax receipts) are being crushed but that an already weakened supply side is being clobbered by hysteresis.
Supply matters – but so does demand, Skidelsky and Miller, FT, 18 Feb 2013