Deflation Dangers

Sharp falls in inflation expectations are challenging market assumptions about future rate hikes…
Deflation threat to Draghi’s credibility, Financial Times 16 Oct 2014
China inflation slips to near five-year low, Reuters, 15 Oct 2014
Rate expectations change faster than the data, Financial Times, 15 Oct 2014
On the oft-cited 5-year/5-year breakeven inflation rate (as a measure of inflation expectations) good places to start are…
Inflation Expectations: How the Market Speaks, FRBSF Economic Letter, 3 Oct 2005
FRED codes are T5YIFR (daily) and T5IFRM (monthly)

Assessing the risk to inflation from inflation expectations, BoE Quarterly Bulletin, 2014 Q2
Inflation Expectations in the Euro area: A review of recent developments, ECB Monthly Bulletin, Feb 2011 (the ECB regularly reports updates in its regular publications)

The IMF’s World Economic Reports often include estimated probabilities of deflation by global region. The October 2014 update can be found here.

A short primer on deflation was published by the St Louis FRB in February 2011: “Deflation: Who Let the Air Out?


Can low interest rates cause deflation? Some thoughts on the policy implications of the Fisher equation…
Monetary Policy with Interest On Reserves, The Grumpy Economist, 16 Oct 2014
Monetary Theory on the Neo-Fisherite Edge, Uneasy Money, 6 May 2014
The Cure for Neo-Fisherism: History, MacroMarketMusings, 28 Apr 2014
On the elimination of privately issued money, Financial Times, 25 Apr 2014
The Neo-Fisherite Rebellion, Noahpinion, 23 Apr 2014